Retrospective - April to June Outlook

ENSO-neutral conditions were (correctly) predicted to return to the tropical Pacific during the season. Lower pressures than normal were expected to persist north of the country during the April to June period, with more high pressure systems and ridges over and east of southern New Zealand. This mean sea level pressure pattern was indeed observed.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in all other regions.

Outcome: Below normal rainfall totals were observed across most regions of the South Island, as well as in the Manawatu and parts of the Waikato. In particular it was a very dry three-month period in South Canterbury. In contrast parts of Northland, Gisborne and the Wairarapa experienced above normal rainfall totals. Near normal seasonal rainfall totals were observed elsewhere.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are likely to be average or above average in the west and south of the South Island, and near average elsewhere. Despite the overall pattern of near average seasonal temperatures in most places, frosts typical of late autumn will occur from time to time with the anticyclonic conditions.

Outcome: Temperatures were below normal for much of the North Island and along the east of the South Island, as well as parts of central Otago. Above normal temperatures were observed in the Buller District and coastal Southland. Near normal seasonal temperatures were observed elsewhere.