Global Setting – June 2012
Neutral ENSO conditions presently exist in the tropical Pacific, but an El Niño is likely by spring if present warming rates continue. Over the July to September period, circulation in the New Zealand region is likely to show a transition from the more 'blocked' north-easterly anomalies persisting from the recent La Niña towards a zonal westerly flow at the end of the season as El Niño conditions settle in.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near normal for the season as a whole.