Neutral ENSO conditions presently exist in the tropical Pacific, but there is an enhanced risk of El Niño conditions developing during the second half of 2012. For winter, higher than normal mean sea level pressures are expected to the south of New Zealand (being weak over NZ itself). Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be near normal for the season as a whole. Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall for all regions, although frosts and cold snaps typical of winter will occur from time to time. Winter rainfall totals are likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island, normal to below normal in the western North Island and northern South Island, and near normal elsewhere.
Winter temperatures are likely to be near average overall for all regions, although frosts and snowfalls typical of winter will occur from time to time.
Winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be below normal in the eastern South Island, normal or below normal for Nelson/Marlborough, as well as the west and north of the North Island. Near normal winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are predicted for the West Coast, and the eastern North Island. River flows are predicted to be below normal for the north and east of the South Island, near normal in the eastern North Island, and normal or below normal elsewhere.