Neutral ENSO conditions presently exist in the tropical Pacific, but there is a likelihood of El Niño developing by spring. For winter, higher than normal mean sea level pressures are expected to the south of New Zealand (but with a weak circulation anomaly over the country itself).
Sea surface temperatures
Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to be slightly above normal for the season as a whole.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 6th May to 2nd June 2012. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: May SOI -0.3; March to May average -0.3.
Differences from normal May surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.