Retrospective - February to April Outlook

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be near normal throughout most of the country. The exception being the west and south of the South Island where normal or below normal conditions are likely.

Outcome: Rainfall totals were correctly forecast to be normal or below normal in the west of the South Island. Near normal seasonal rainfall was projected for all other regions (correctly so in the case of Southland, Canterbury, much of Nelson, Hawkes Bay and around Taranaki and the Central Plateau). In Otago, parts of Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Northland, Auckland, Coromandel and parts of Taranaki it was wetter than forecast (with above normal rainfall). It was also drier than forecast over parts of the Manawatu-Wanganui Region.

Predicted air temperature: Temperatures are likely to be near average in most regions, but near average or above average in the west and south of the South Island.

Outcome: Temperatures were correctly predicted to be near average or above average in the west and south of the South Island. However, it was much cooler than forecast in almost all other regions – near average temperatures were observed over parts of Northland, Auckland, parts of Taranaki, parts of the Manawatu and the majority of the Bay of Plenty. Elsewhere, seasonal temperatures were below average.