Outlook - May to July 2012

ENSO-neutral conditions prevail in the tropical Pacific. Lower pressures than normal are expected to the north of the country, with higher than normal pressures over southern New Zealand. Sea temperatures around New Zealand are likely to remain near normal or slightly cooler than normal during early winter. Seasonal temperatures are likely to be average or above average over the North Island and northern South Island, and near average elsewhere. Early winter rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the east of both Islands and in the northern North Island, and near normal in other regions. 

Seasonal temperatures are likely to be average or above average over most of the country, except for near average in the east of the South Island. Despite the overall pattern of near or above average temperatures, frosts typical of winter will occur from time to time. 

Early winter rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in other regions. 

Soil moisture levels are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island and near normal in other regions. River flows are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the west of both islands, and near normal in the north and east of the South Island.