Outlook - April to June 2012

La Niña conditions are dissipating and a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is imminent. Lower pressures than normal are expected to the north of the country, with more anticyclonic conditions over and east of southern New Zealand. Seas around New Zealand are likely to remain slightly cooler than usual during late autumn.  Seasonal temperatures are likely to be average or above average in the west, south and east of the South Island, and near average elsewhere. Late autumn rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in all other regions.

Seasonal temperatures are likely to be average or above average in the west and south of the South Island, and near average elsewhere. Despite the overall pattern of near average temperatures in most places, frosts typical of late autumn will occur from time to time with the anticyclonic conditions.

Late autumn rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in all other regions.

Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal in the South Island and normal or above normal in North Island districts.

See our full April - June climate outlook