A moderate La Niña is in place in the tropical Pacific and should persist into autumn 2012. Mean sea level pressures for early autumn are likely to be above normal south and southeast of the country, but below average to the north of New Zealand.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures are likely to be near average in the New Zealand region.
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 8th January to 4th February 2012. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: January SOI +1.1; November to January average +1.6.
Differences from normal January surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.