Outlook - November 2011 to January 2012
A weak to moderate La Niña is in place in the tropical Pacific. Mean sea level pressures are likely to be near or above normal across New Zealand, with weaker westerlies than normal over the country, on average. Temperatures are likely to be near average over the North Island and average or above average over the South Island. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in all regions.
Temperatures are likely to be near average over the North Island and average or above average over the South Island.
Seasonal rainfalls, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be near normal in all regions.
For the tropical cyclone season (November 2011 to May 2012), fewer than the normal number of cyclones is expected overall. The chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is below the long-term average. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.