Global Setting – January 2011
3 February 2011
The equatorial Pacific remains in a strong La Niña state, which is expected to persist into the start of autumn. Beyond this time, there is disagreement between the ENSO forecast models as to whether La Niña will continue into winter at a weaker level, or whether a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions will occur. During Feb-Apr, mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal to the north of New Zealand, with weaker westerlies across the country.
Sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures are slightly above normal around the North Island, and are expected to warm further over the coming three months. Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal for the rest of this season (through to May).