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Global Setting – May 2010

4 June 2010

The El Niño conditions that prevailed since the winter of 2009 have dissipated, and the equatorial Pacific is now in an ENSO-neutral state. Recent trends suggest a La Niña could develop by late winter or early spring of 2010. During June-August, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over the North Island with a weak westerly flow anomaly over the South Island.

 
Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2nd May to 29th of May 2010. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.month.gif).
 

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). SOI mean values: May SOI +1.0; March to May average +0.3.


Differences from normal May surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand.

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be near average around New Zealand over the winter period. 

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