Outlook - April to June 2010

During April - June, mean sea level pressures are likely to be slightly below normal over the country, with a slightly enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be above average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be near normal over much of the country and normal or below normal in the east of the South Island.

Temperatures are expected to be above average everywhere.

Rainfall is likely to be near normal over most of New Zealand, and normal or below normal along the east of the South Island.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to be above average around New Zealand.

Below normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely in the north of the North Island and the east of both islands. Normal or below normal conditions are likely in the southwest of the North Island and the north of the South Island. Normal conditions are likely in the west and south of the South Island.

In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown
(30% and 20% respectively).