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Outlook - January to March 2010

Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be average or below average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the northern South Island, and near normal elsewhere.

Temperatures are expected to be average or below average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the northern South Island, and near normal elsewhere.

Rainfall is likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the northern South Island, and near normal elsewhere.

Normal soil moistures and river flows are expected in the west of both islands. Below normal soil moistures and river flows are expected elsewhere.

Tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Pacific is expected to be near-normal through to May. The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is a little below the long-term average. On average during moderate El Niño conditions, an ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 6 or 7 out of 10 cyclone seasons.


outlook keyIn this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown
(30% and 20% respectively).

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