Retrospective - September to November Outlook

The climate we predicted and what actually happened.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall is likely to be in the near normal or below normal ranges in all regions, except in the south and west of the South Island where near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome.

Outcome: In the North Island below normal rainfall occurred over the north of the island and above normal rainfall was experienced over the Manawatu-Wanganui region. Near normal rainfall was experienced in all other areas.  The majority of the South Island was below normal apart from normal rainfall occurring over the north of the island.

Predicted air temperature: Air temperatures are expected to be in the average range over most of the country, except for the north and east of the North Island, where temperatures are equally likely to be in the near average or below average ranges.

Outcome: For the North Island average temperatures were experienced in the north and north east of the island with below average temperatures elsewhere. In the South Island coastal Canterbury, Marlborough, the Westcoast and Southland were below average. All other areas of the South Island experienced near average temperatures.