MenuMain navigation

Climate Outlook - September to November 2009

In the New Zealand region over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal with more southwesterly winds than usual. Temperatures are expected to be average or below average in the north and east of the North Island, and near average in other regions. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal in the North Island and north of the South Island.

Temperatures are expected to be in the average range over most of the country, except for the north and east of the North Island, where temperatures are equally likely to be in the near average or below average ranges.

 

Rainfall is likely to be in the near normal or below normal ranges in all regions, except in the south and west of the South Island where near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome.

 

Near normal or below normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely everywhere apart from the west and south of the South Island, where soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely to be in the near normal or above normal ranges.


In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown (30% and 20% respectively).