Global setting and climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

50% chance of move to La Niña

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

Conditions are currently neutral in the tropical Pacific, but there is a relatively high (50%) chance of a transition to La Niña conditions during the next three months. The pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies is beginning to resemble La Niña conditions, with colder than average waters near the Equator in the far eastern Pacific (see map) and slightly warmer than average waters in the western Pacific. The SOI is still negative, although in the neutral range.

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand

 

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the New Zealand region continued to increase in April, rising to an anomaly of +0.4 °C. The area-wide average temperature anomaly has risen about 0.8 °C since the start of 2007. Surface waters to the southeast of the country remain cooler than normal, while the Tasman is slightly warmer than normal, especially to the west and east of the North Island.

Outlook for May to July 2007

 

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

Atmospheric mean sea level pressures are expected to be higher than average south of the South Island for the coming three months.

Air temperatures are expected to be above average in most regions and near or above average in the north of the North Island.

Normal or below normal rainfall is likely in the east of the both islands, with near normal rainfalls elsewhere. Below normal soil moisture and stream flows are very likely in the east of the South Island. Soil moisture and stream flows are expected to be normal or below normal in the east of the North Island, and the north, west and south of the South Island. Elsewhere, normal soil moisture and stream flows are likely.