SST anomalies in the New Zealand region were near 0.0°C in August (+0.3°C in July), with a June to August average of +0.2°C. Positive anomalies existed east of New Zealand, while temperatures were below normal in the mid and eastern Tasman Sea. SSTs in the New Zealand region are expected to remain below average in the Tasman, but above average east of the country.
Weak El Niño may develop by year-end
Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).
Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).
Sea surface temperatures are above average across the equatorial Pacific, up to +1°C in places, and, if this situation persists, a weak El Niño will be established in the coming three months.
Outlook for September 2006 to November 2006
Regional outlook (click to enlarge).
Circulation patterns for spring 2006 are for above average sea-level pressures in the Tasman Sea and over the North Island, with more southwesterly winds than usual over the South Island.
Air temperatures are likely to be average in all regions, but average or below average in the west of the South Island and above average in the east of the North Island. There is a slightly higher chance than normal of frosts in early spring.
Spring rainfalls are likely to be normal or below normal in all regions, but normal in the west of the South Island. Soil moisture levels are expected to be below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or below normal in the east of the South Island, and normal elsewhere. Normal or below normal stream flows are expected in all regions, except in the west of the South Island, where normal stream flows are likely.