Sea surface temperature anomalies in the New Zealand region were near +0.3 °C in July, as they were in June, with a May to July average also at +0.3 °C. The largest positive anomalies still lie east of New Zealand, with little change in the last month. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be a little below average in the Tasman, and a little above average east of the country.
ENSO remains neutral, with SOI weakly negative
Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).
Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).
The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral state, though there has been continued warming in the upper layers of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean the past two months. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are now higher than normal across much of the Pacific basin.
Outlook for August 2006 to October 2006
Regional outlook (click to enlarge).
Atmospheric pressures are likely to be above normal in the New Zealand region, with a tendency towards weakened westerly winds.
Air temperatures are likely to be average or above average in all regions. Despite this expectation, cold outbreaks will occur at times.
Rainfalls are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the north and west of the South Island, while near normal rainfall is the most likely outcome elsewhere. Normal or above normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely in the North Island, with normal or below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows likely in the South Island.