Global setting & climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

In June, surface temperature anomalies in the New Zealand region dropped back to near their April values, averaging +0.3 °C in June (+0.8 °C in May), with an April to June average of +0.5 °C. Surface temperatures immediately to the east of the South Island have fallen, and the largest positive anomalies now lie just east of the Chatham Islands. Temperatures in the New Zealand region are expected to remain near or below average in the Tasman, and near or above average east of the country.

ENSO neutral

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

The tropical Pacific is in a neutral state. The equatorial trade winds, whose changing strengths typically indicate changes in ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), were close to their normal strength across the Pacific in June.

Outlook for July 2006 to September 2006

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

During late winter 2006, atmospheric circulation patterns in the Tasman Sea are likely to be more anticyclonic than usual at the start of the period, with near normal conditions likely for the season as a whole.

Air temperatures are likely to be average in the north of both main islands, and average or above average in other regions. Despite the overall temperature expectation, cold outbreaks typical of winter will occur from time to time.

Rainfalls are likely to be near normal in all regions. Normal or above normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely on the east coast of both islands. Elsewhere, normal soil moisture and stream flows are expected.