Global setting & climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the New Zealand region increased slightly in April to +0.4 °C (after a warm February of about +1.0 °C, and a near-average March of +0.1 °C). The three month February to April average was about +0.5 °C. SSTs in the New Zealand region are expected to remain near or above average until July.

La Niña dissipating

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

The tropical Pacific should remain in a neutral state over the next 3 months, with the remaining La Niña features expected to dissipate over winter.

Outlook for May 2006 to July 2006

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

Atmospheric pressures are expected to be lower than normal over and to the north of the North Island, and higher than normal south of the South Island, with a tendency for more northeasterly air flows than usual over New Zealand.

Air temperatures are likely to be average in the South Island and east of the North Island, and very likely to be above average or average in the north and west of the North Island.

Rainfalls are likely to be above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or above in the east of the South Island, and near normal elsewhere. Above normal soil moisture and flows are very likely in the north and east of the North Island. Normal soil moisture and flows are likely in the southwest of the North Island and the west and south of the South Island. Normal or above normal soil moisture and flows are likely in the north and east of the South Island.