Outlook and outcome – June 2005 to August 2005

Rainfall was near normal, as predicted, in parts of Northland, Waikato, and the east of the North Island, but below normal over much of the rest of the country.

Air temperatures were above average in many places as was predicted, but lower than expected in parts of the east and north of the North Island.

Streamflows were near normal, as was predicted, in the south and southwest of the South Island, and below normal elsewhere.


The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked June to August data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.