Outlook and outcome – April 2005 to June 2005

Rainfall was near normal as predicted in parts of the North Island, but lower than expected in the north and west of the North Island and much of the South Island.

Air temperatures were above average in the north of the country, and near average in much of the South Island, as was predicted, but lower than expected in the east and south of the country.

Streamflows were above normal to normal on the east coast of the North Island and in the south of the South Island, and below normal elsewhere.


The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked April to June data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.