Three-month outlook

The outlook for June 2005 to August 2005

While northeasterly wind flows were predominant over northern New Zealand in May, the coming three months are likely to feature enhanced westerly wind flows over the country, the result of expected below average sea-level pressures well to the south.

The maps below show the expected conditions. Air temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island and northern South Island, and average or above average elsewhere. Rainfalls are likely to be near normal in the north and west of the North Island, normal or above normal in the west of the South Island, and normal or below normal in eastern regions. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in all regions.

 

A. Climate models give no strong signals about how the climate will evolve, so we assume that there is an equal chance (33%) of the climate occurring in the range of the upper, middle or lower third (tercile) of all previously observed conditions.

B. There is a relatively strong indication by the models (60% chance of occurrence) that conditions will be below average, but, given the variable nature of climate, the chance of average or above-average conditions is also shown (30% and 10% respectively).