Checkpoint

Outlook and outcome – February 2005 to April 2005

Rainfall was below average in the north of the country, as forecast. The west of the South Island was drier than expected, and it was wetter than predicted in the southeast of the South Island.

Average to below average temperatures were expected. While average temperatures were widespread, conditions over much of the country were warmer than usual.

Streamflows were expected to be below normal in the north and east. The outcome was below normal flows in the north and southwest of the North Island, and below normal to normal flows in other locations, except for the southwest of the South Island where they tended to above normal.

 

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked February to April data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.