Outlook and outcome – August 2004 to October 2004

Rainfall was near normal, as predicted, over much of the country, but drier than forecast in the north of the North Island and in parts of the west of the South Island. The south of the North Island, and parts of eastern and southern South Island, were wetter than predicted.

Air temperatures were lower than predicted in all regions.

River flows were lower than predicted in the north of New Zealand and in southern alpine regions. Rivers in the southern North Island, Buller, and parts of Southland had higher than predicted flows.


The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked August to October data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.