Outlook and outcome – June 2004 to August 2004

Many districts recorded average rainfall, as predicted, and it was drier than normal in Northland and Auckland. Parts of the east and south of the North Island, and the northwest and south of the South Island, were wetter than expected.

Air temperatures were average, as predicted, in many areas, and average or below average, as predicted, in the southern South Island. It was cooler than predicted in the northwest of the South Island and in the Auckland region. North Canterbury temperatures were above average.

River flows were expected to be generally normal. Below normal flows occurred in Northland and Auckland, but above normal in the central and southern North Island, Buller, and coastal Southland. Flows were near normal in the remainder of the South Island.


The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked June to August data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.