Three-month outlook

The outlook for July 2004 to September 2004

During the next three months, mean sea-level pressures are expected to be near average in the Tasman Sea and over New Zealand, with slightly enhanced westerly quarter winds to the south of the country during late winter. Sea surface temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average around New Zealand.

Temperatures are expected to be average or above average in the North Island, and average in the South Island.

Rainfalls are expected to be near normal in all regions. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in all regions.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation remains in a neutral state – no El Niño or La Niña is expected through spring 2004.

 

A. Climate models give no strong signals about how the climate will evolve, so we assume that there is an equal chance (33%) of the climate occurring in the range of the upper, middle or lower third (tercile) of all previously observed conditions.

B. There is a relatively strong indication by the models (60% chance of occurrence) that conditions will be below average, but, given the variable nature of climate, the chance of average or above-average conditions is also shown (30% and 10% respectively).