Outlook and outcome – April 2004 to June 2004

Rainfall was near normal as predicted in many areas, but was higher than predicted for the northern North Island. Bay of Plenty and East Cape and the northern and southern extremities of the South Island were wetter than predicted.

Temperatures were near average in the North Island, in line with the outlook for April to June, but higher than forecast in most of the South Island.

Soil moisture levels were below normal as predicted in north Otago and coastal Canterbury. River flows were above normal in west Otago, northwest South Island, and western North Island, low in Northland (as predicted), and low in Hawke’s Bay, east Otago, coastal Canterbury, and Marlborough. Elsewhere, flows were normal.


The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked April to June data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.