Three-month outlook

The outlook for May 2004 to July 2004

Above average mean sea level pressures are expected to the north of New Zealand with a tendency towards more cool westerly winds than usual.

Local sea surface temperatures are likely to remain below average around New Zealand over the coming three months. Air temperatures are expected to be below average or average in all regions.

Rainfalls are expected to be near normal in the North Island and northern South Island, normal or above normal in the western South Island, and normal or below normal in the eastern South Island. Below normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected in the east of the South Island, while above normal or normal soil moisture levels are likely in the west and south of the South Island. Elsewhere, normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are expected.

No El Niño or La Niña is expected through winter 2004.


A. Climate models give no strong signals about how the climate will evolve, so we assume that there is an equal chance (33%) of the climate occurring in the range of the upper, middle or lower third (tercile) of all previously observed conditions.

B. There is a relatively strong indication by the models (60% chance of occurrence) that conditions will be below average, but, given the variable nature of climate, the chance of average or above-average conditions is also shown (30% and 10% respectively).