Outlook and outcome – November 2003 to January 2004

Rainfall was higher than predicted in parts of the east and centre of the North Island, and lower than predicted in the east of the South Island and in parts of Northland.

Air temperatures were average or above average as predicted in many areas, and higher than predicted in parts of the west of the North Island.

River flows were normal or above normal in the North Island apart from Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, and East Cape where they were normal or below normal. River flows were below normal in the South Island, apart from the west, where they were normal as was predicted.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked November to January data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.