Outlook and outcome – August 2003 to October 2003

Temperatures were lower than expected in most districts. East Cape, Westland, and Fiordland recorded temperatures close to those predicted in the outlook.

Rainfall was higher than expected in the eastern and northern North Island, and much of the eastern South Island. It was drier than expected in eastern Southland. Elsewhere it was mostly as predicted.

River flows were higher than expected in most North Island regions. In the South Island, flows were as expected in the northern region, but were higher than predicted in the east and lower than predicted in the west.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked August to October data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.