Outlook and outcome – July 2003 to September 2003

From July to September, temperatures were near or below average in most regions, which was lower than expected. The expected cold snaps, snow, and inland frosts eventuated with a very frosty July.

Rainfall was as expected in most areas, but it was wetter in the eastern North Island and drier in the northern South Island and Waikato.

River flows were lower than expected in the west of the North Island and the north of the South Island, and higher than expected in the east of the North Island. Elsewhere they were much as expected.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked July to September data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.