Outlook and outcome – June 2003 to August 2003

The expected mild winter was experienced in most places. Buller was cooler than predicted. It was drier than expected in central and western North Island and eastern South Island. Elsewhere rain was as expected.

Soil moisture levels were normal as expected in most regions, but below average in south Canterbury and north Otago, and slightly below average in Manawatu and Horowhenua.

River flows were expected to be normal in northern and western regions, and normal or below normal in eastern districts. They were higher than expected in Hawke’s Bay and Fiordland, and lower than expected in central, western, and southern North Island regions

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked June to August data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.