Outlook and outcome – May 2003 to July 2003

Rainfall occurred as predicted in many areas, particularly the normal or below normal rain in eastern areas. Some localities received above average rain.

Air temperatures were above average over much of New Zealand as was expected. Near average temperatures were recorded at a few locations.

Below normal river flows occurred as predicted in the south and east of the North Island and the eastern South Island. River flows were normal in the north of both islands and in the west and south of the South Island.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked May to July data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.