Outlook and outcome – February 2003 to April 2003

Rainfall was near or below normal as predicted in most regions, but above normal in a few areas of the northern North Island. It was drier than expected in the southwest North Island.

Temperatures were near or below average in most regions as expected.

Higher than expected river flows occurred in Northland, Coromandel, East Cape, Hawkes Bay, and north and mid Canterbury. In most other areas, below normal or normal flows occurred as expected.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked February to April data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.