Three-month outlook

The outlook for April to June 2003

For April–June, temperatures are expected to be average over the North Island and north of the South Island, and average or below average over the rest of the South Island.

Normal or below normal rainfall is expected in the east of both main islands, with near normal rainfall likely elsewhere.

Soil moisture levels and river flows are predicted to be below normal in eastern regions of both islands, and to be normal or below normal elsewhere.

The El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is nearing its end, and little influence from this is expected on New Zealand climate over the coming months.

A. Climate models give no strong signals about how the climate will evolve, so we assume that there is an equal chance (33%) of the climate occurring in the range of the upper, middle or lower third (tercile) of all previously observed conditions.

B. There is a relatively strong indication by the models (60% chance of occurrence) that conditions will be below average, but, given the variable nature of climate, the chance of average or above-average conditions is also shown (30% and 10% respectively).