Outlook and outcome – January 2003 to March 2003

Rainfall was as predicted for parts of Waikato, Bay of Plenty, the east of the North Island, Marlborough and Nelson, and eastern Otago. Rainfall was lower than forecast in western regions, and higher than forecast in the north of the country.

Air temperatures were average in most regions, as expected.

River flows were higher than expected in Northland, Waikato, and in parts of the east of the North Island. Lower than expected flows were recorded in western areas.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked January to March data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.