Outlook and outcome – September to November 2002

Rainfall was lower than expected in the north and east of the North Island, and in Marlborough and parts of north and east Otago. Parts of the southwest of the country were wetter than expected.

Air temperatures were as expected in parts of the northeast and east of the South Island, and generally cooler than predicted over the rest of the country.

River flows were near normal, as predicted, in the southwest of the North Island and the west of the South Island, higher than predicted in Southland, and lower than predicted everywhere else.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked September to November data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)

As an approximate guide, middle tercile rainfalls often range from 80 to 115% of the historical average. Middle tercile air temperatures typically occur in the range of the average plus or minus 0.5°C.