Outlook and outcome – August to October 2001

Atmospheric pressure patterns were higher than normal to the east of the Chatham Islands, resulting in a tendency for a more northeasterly air flow than normal over New Zealand.

Rainfall was lower than expected over much of the North Island, near expected in much of Nelson and Marlborough, and lower than predicted over much of the rest of the South Island.

Air temperatures were generally higher than expected.

River flows for August to October were higher than expected in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, and East Cape. Most river flows in the northern South Island were below average as predicted. Elsewhere in the country, flows were average to below average as anticipated in the August to October outlook.

The outcome maps shown here give the tercile rankings of the rainfall totals and mean temperatures that eventuated for these months. Terciles were obtained by dividing ranked August to October data from the past 30 years into three groups of equal frequency (lower, middle and upper one-third values) and assigning the data for the present year to the appropriate group. (Click to enlarge)