Global setting and climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

El Niño-Southern Oscillation remains neutral

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

Neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) now prevail in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are very likely to continue through the summer, although there is a chance of weak La Niña conditions redeveloping.

Sea surface temperatures(SST) around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand were below average in November, but are expected to be near or slightly above normal over the summer.

Outlook for December 2008 to February 2009

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

Mean sea level pressures are likely to be higher than normal to the east of New Zealand, with frequent northerly or northeasterly winds over the North Island and stronger than normal northwesterlies over the South Island. Air temperatures are likely to be above average in most regions of the country. Rainfall is likely to be near normal in the North Island, normal or above normal in the west of the South Island and normal or below normal in the east of the South Island. Normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely in the north of both islands. In the southwest of the North Island normal soil moisture levels and normal to below normal streamflows are likely. In the east of both islands normal to below normal soil moisture levels and below normal streamflows are likely. Normal or above normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely in the west and south of the South Island.