October

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 97 – October 2008

September’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was not as well-defined in September as in previous months.
• Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru to Tuvalu and Tokelau.
• Below normal rainfall for many areas in the South Pacific, including Samoa and southwestern French Polynesia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seasonal rainfall, and sea surface temperature forecasts

• Neutral ENSO conditions exist in the tropical Pacific at present. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions persisting into early 2009.
• Average or below average rainfall is forecast for the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Tokelau, Pitcairn Island, and the northeastern half of French Polynesia.
• Above normal rainfall is expected to be centralised near Eastern Kiribati and Papua New Guinea, and also from Vanuatu to the Southern Cook Islands. Near–to–above average rainfall is forecast for Fiji, Niue, and New Caledonia for the coming three-month period.
• Normal to above normal SSTs are forecast to extend from near Papua New Guinea southeast to Tonga, including Fiji, Vanuatu, and New Caledonia. Normal to below normal SSTs are forecast for the Society Islands.

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