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Island Climate Update 97 - October 2008

October

Monthly climate

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Three-month outlook

Feature article

Data sources

Feature article

Average annual number of Tropical Cyclones, neutral-ENSO periods, from 1969–70 to 2007–08.

Tropical cyclone risk across the South Pacific, 2008–09
Jim Salinger and James Renwick, NIWA
Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to produce average tropical cyclone activity for most tropical South Pacific countries over the coming months. Communities should remain alert and prepared.
In the South Pacific, tropical cyclones usually develop in the wet season, from November through to April, but occasionally occur in October and May.

Monthly climate

Climate developments in September 2008

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation anomalies for September 2008. (Click for enlargement and detail)

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) continued to weaken in September relative to previous months. Only a small region of enhanced rainfall was observed in satellite data during September 2008, centred over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. A localised region of suppressed convection expanded south of the Equator, and extends from east of the Solomon Islands to Tokelau, and southeast to Tuvalu and Tokelau.

October

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 97 – October 2008
September’s climate

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was not as well-defined in September as in previous months.
Very suppressed convection near Western Kiribati and south of the Equator from Nauru to Tuvalu and Tokelau.
Below normal rainfall for many areas in the South Pacific, including Samoa and southwestern French Polynesia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (

Three-month outlook

Tropical rainfall and SST outlook: October to December 2008

Rainfall outlook map for October to December 2008. (Click for enlargement)

Sea surface temperature outlook map for October to December 2008. (Click for enlargement)

During the October–December 2008 forecast period, a region of suppressed convection is likely to encompass the Solomon Islands, and a region extending southeast from Tuvalu to Pitcairn Island, including Tokelau, Wallis & Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and most of French Polynesia (except the Austral Islands).

Tropical Pacific rainfall

Tropical Pacific rainfall - September 2008

Territory and station name
September 2008 rainfall
total (mm)
September 2008 percent
of average

Australia

Cairns Airport
40
111

Townsville Airport
1
5

Brisbane Airport
56
159

Sydney Airport
99
157

Cook Islands

Penrhyn
120
81

Aitutaki
N/A
N/A

Rarotonga Airport
128
118

Fiji

Rotuma Island
215
91

Udu Point
186
164

Nadi Airport
55
78

Nausori
98
59

French Polynesia

Hiva Hoa, Atuona
154
208

Bora Bora
65
100

Tahiti – Faa’a
14
27

Tuamotu, Takaroa
63
77

Gambier, Rikitea
65
48

Tubuai
27
29

Data sources

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is produced by NIWA and made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), with addi