July

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 94 – July 2008

June’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from Papua New Guinea, over northern Vanuatu, across Niue to the Austral Islands, and was displaced southwest of normal.
• Very suppressed convection from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and about the Equator weakened.
• Below normal rainfall for the northern part of French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and in parts of Australia, but record high rainfall in Fiji and Samoa.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The strong La Niña episode present in the Pacific during past months has dissipated and neutral conditions exist. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of 2008.
• Average or below average rainfall is very likely in the southwest Pacific encompassing the Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu, the Society Islands, the Austral Islands, and the Marquesas.
• Enhanced convection is likely from Papua New Guinea extending southeastward toward Vanuatu, through to the Southern Cook Islands, including Fiji, Niue, and Tonga, with above normal rainfall expected.

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