June

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 93 – June 2008

May’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from Papua New Guinea, over northern Vanuatu, across Niue to the Austral Islands of French Polynesia, and was displaced southwest of normal.
• Suppressed convection from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and about the Equator with low rainfall, especially near Nauru.
• Below normal rainfall for the northern part of the Southern CookIslands, Tuvalu, northeastern French Polynesia, and in parts of Australia, but record high rainfall in Tonga, Samoa, and near record high rainfall in Niue.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The strong La Niña episode present in the Pacific during past months is all but gone, but effects of the event are expected to persist into the Southern Hemisphere winter. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions for the end of winter and through late 2008.
• Average or below average rainfall is very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu,the Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu, the Austral Islands, the SocietyIslands, and the Marquesas.
• Enhanced convection is likely to continue along a southwest displaced SPCZ, with average or above average rainfall for Papua New Guinea,Vanuatu, New Caledonia, the Austral Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Wallis & Futuna, and the Southern Cook Islands.

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