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May

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 92 – May 2008

April’s climate

  • South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended from Papua New Guinea, over New Caledonia and Vanuatu to the northeast of New Zealand, and was displaced well southwest of normal.
  • Suppressed convection from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and about the Equator with low rainfall, especially near Nauru.
  • Below normal rainfall for the northern part of the Southern Cook Islands and in parts of Australia, but record high rainfall in New Caledonia, and near record high rainfall in Vanuatu.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

  • The strong La Niña episode present in the Pacific during past months is weakening. The event is expected to persist into the Southern Hemisphere winter.
  • Average or below average rainfall is very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu, and the Marquesas. Average rainfall is forecast for the Solomon Islands and Samoa.
  • Enhanced convection is likely to continue along a southwest displaced SPCZ, with average or above average rainfall for Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, the Austral Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands.

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