April

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 91 – April 2008

March’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Coral Sea towards New Caledonia and Vanuatu, and is displaced well southwest of normal.
• Suppressed convection exists from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and about the Equator with low rainfall, especially near Nauru.
• Below normal rainfall for several stations in Fiji, the Northern Cook Islands, and in parts of Australia, but very high rainfall in New Caledonia, and record high rainfall in Niue.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The strong La Niña episode present in the Pacific has reached maturity, and is deteriorating. The event is expected to persist into the Southern Hemisphere winter.
• Average or below average rainfall is very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati, including Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, Tuamotu, and the Marquesas. Near or below average rainfall is forecast for the Solomon Islands. Average rainfall is likely for Papua New Guinea, the Southern Cook Islands, the Society Islands, Pitcairn Island, and Samoa.
• Enhanced convection is likely to continue along a southwest displaced SPCZ, with average or above average rainfall for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, the Austral Islands, Fiji, and Niue.

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