January

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 88 – January 2008

December’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Papua New Guinea toward Fiji, and from Samoa to the Society Islands
• Tropical cyclone Daman (Category 4) brings high rainfall and winds to parts of northern Fiji; initial damage costs exceed US$0.4 million
• Suppressed convection intensifies over Kiribati, and spreads west, bringing low rainfall
• Above average temperatures in Western Kiribati, New Caledonia and Tonga; below average temperatures in the Southern Cook Islands and parts of Southern French Polynesia

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• A moderate to strong La Niña episode is now in progress across the entire equatorial Pacific, and the event is expected to persist into the Southern Hemisphere autumn
• A large area of suppressed convection and below average rainfall is very likely along the equatorial Pacific from Western to Eastern Kiribati, including the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Northern Cooks, and the Marquesas Islands
• Enhanced convection is likely to continue along a southwest displaced SPCZ with above average rainfall from Vanuatu to Pitcairn Island, including New Caledonia, Fiji, Wallis & Futuna, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands

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