09 January 2008
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 87 – December 2007
November’s climate
- Active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extends from Papua New Guinea to Niue; further west than normal
- Tropical cyclone Guba brings high rainfall to Papua New Guinea; also wet in Vanuatu, Fiji, and Niue
- Suppressed convection persists over Kiribati, extending to Tokelau and the Northern Cook Islands
- Low rainfall over much of Kiribati, and the Northern Cook Islands; soil moisture deficit persists in the Southern Cook Islands
- Low rainfall over much of Kiribati, New Caledonia, and northern French Polynesia
- Above average temperatures in Western Kiribati, the south of Vanuatu, southern Tonga, American Samoa, and the Southern Cook Islands
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts
- La Niña conditions have strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and are expected to persist into the Southern Hemisphere autumn
- A large area of suppressed convection and below average rainfall is very likely over the equatorial Pacific including Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Northern Cook Islands, and the Marquesas, Tuamotu, and Society Islands
- Enhanced convection is likely to continue along a southwest displaced SPCZ with above average rainfall from the Solomon Islands to southern French Polynesia, including Vanuatu, Wallis & Futuna, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands
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