Three-month outlook
Tropical rainfall outlook: March to May 2007
Rainfall outlook map for March to May 2007. (Click for enlargement)
Enhanced convection is expected over Western Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Samoa, the Tuamotu Islands, the Society Islands, and Pitcairn Island, where rainfall is expected to be near or above average.
Rainfall is expected to be near or below average over Tuvalu and Marquesas Islands.
Near average rainfall is likely for other countries in our forecast region with no trend forecast for New Caledonia and Fiji.
The forecast model skills are low to moderate during this time of the year.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kiribati | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Solomon Islands | 15:45:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Tuamotu Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 40:40:20 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 35:45:20(Near or above) | Low - moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:45:35 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Tokelau | 35:45:20 (Near average) | Low - moderate |
| Tonga | 20:45:35(Near average) | Moderate |
| Niue | 35:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 35:45:20 (Near average) | Low - moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 35:35:30 (Climatology) | Low – moderate |
| Fiji | 35:35:30 (Climatology) | Low – moderate |
| Tuvalu | 40:40:20 (Near or below average) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 40:40:20 (Near or below average) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.