February

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 77 – February 2007

January’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) further north and east than normal, with enhanced convection north of the Solomon Islands, southeast to Central French Polynesia; wet in Western Kiribati, and Central and Southern French Polynesia
• Suppressed convection with low rainfall over Niue, Tonga, and the Coral Sea
• Warmer than normal throughout Tonga and French Polynesia, cooler in New Caledonia
• Two tropical cyclones in January; four so far this season

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The El Niño is expected to wane over the coming months
• Below average rainfall expected over New Caledonia

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